2025

Supply Disruptions & Geopolitics Caspian Pipeline Consortium (CPC): Ukrainian drone strikes over the weekend caused major damage to the CPC Black Sea terminal, which handles over 1% of global oil supply and the majority of Kazakhstan’s exports. Loadings were briefly halted, and although one mooring (SPM-1) has resumed, another remains heavily damaged and a third under repair

Global Supply Shock: Russia A Ukrainian strike on Russia’s port of Novorossiysk has temporarily halted roughly 2.2 million bpd of oil exports—about 2% of global supply. The disruption is tightening global balances and adding upward pressure and volatility to WTI. Russia is trying to offset the loss with spare refining capacity, but export delays remain large.

OPEC+ Outlook: OPEC+ is expected to approve a modest oil output hike of 137,000 barrels per day for December 2025, signaling a cautious approach amid supply glut concerns. Despite adding 2.7 million bpd since April, new Western sanctions on Russia are complicating production plans. Oil prices have rebounded from $60 to $65 per barrel, supported

Geopolitical Developments Middle East Tensions Intensify Israel has expanded its military operations with a targeted airstrike in Doha, Qatar, aimed at Hamas leadership. The strike, which killed five Hamas members, has drawn strong criticism from both Qatar and the U.S., with concerns it could derail ongoing ceasefire negotiations. Qatar, a key mediator in Gaza peace