November 2025

Global Supply Shock: Russia A Ukrainian strike on Russia’s port of Novorossiysk has temporarily halted roughly 2.2 million bpd of oil exports—about 2% of global supply. The disruption is tightening global balances and adding upward pressure and volatility to WTI. Russia is trying to offset the loss with spare refining capacity, but export delays remain large. […]

OPEC+ Outlook: OPEC+ is expected to approve a modest oil output hike of 137,000 barrels per day for December 2025, signaling a cautious approach amid supply glut concerns. Despite adding 2.7 million bpd since April, new Western sanctions on Russia are complicating production plans. Oil prices have rebounded from $60 to $65 per barrel, supported