Goldman Sachs sees modest upside risk to its WTI crude price forecast for 2025 and 2026, citing recent U.S.-China trade de-escalation as a key driver. The bank estimates a $3–$4 per barrel upside to its base WTI forecast of $56/bbl in 2025 and $52/bbl in 2026. While reduced recession risk supports prices, Goldman still expects headwinds from strong non-U.S. shale supply growth and the planned OPEC+ export increases in May and June. Despite the optimism, the bank warns that trade-related tariff impacts could still weigh on U.S. real income, global GDP, and oil demand.
House Republicans have proposed spending $1.32 billion to refill the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR), alongside $218 million for maintenance, aligning with former President Trump’s pledge to restore reserve levels. The SPR, which dropped to a 40-year low after emergency sales under Biden, has since rebounded 15% but remains 37% below early 2021 levels. Most of the recent government oil purchases have come in under a $79.99/bbl cap, with current U.S. crude prices rising toward $70/bbl. The move comes as part of broader GOP budget plans that also propose over $5 trillion in tax breaks while cutting funding to Medicaid and green energy programs.
This week’s DOE report is below. Please contact your Energy Account Manager with any questions you may have.
Propane
Propane posted a build bigger than anticipated! The total build coming in at 2.2 million barrels which is over the anticipated build of 1.7 million barrels. Most of the build was in the Gulf Coast suggesting propane exports might have slowed a tick for this week.
Important note that the Midwest had a build of 0.8 million barrels. This is something we will watch closely as we continue through the summer months.
This week’s DOE report and inventory graph are below. Please contact your Energy Account Manager with any questions you may have.
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