Energy Update

Supply Disruptions & Geopolitics Caspian Pipeline Consortium (CPC): Ukrainian drone strikes over the weekend caused major damage to the CPC Black Sea terminal, which handles over 1% of global oil supply and the majority of Kazakhstan’s exports. Loadings were briefly halted, and although one mooring (SPM-1) has resumed, another remains heavily damaged and a third under repair […]

Global Supply Shock: Russia A Ukrainian strike on Russia’s port of Novorossiysk has temporarily halted roughly 2.2 million bpd of oil exports—about 2% of global supply. The disruption is tightening global balances and adding upward pressure and volatility to WTI. Russia is trying to offset the loss with spare refining capacity, but export delays remain large.

OPEC+ Outlook: OPEC+ is expected to approve a modest oil output hike of 137,000 barrels per day for December 2025, signaling a cautious approach amid supply glut concerns. Despite adding 2.7 million bpd since April, new Western sanctions on Russia are complicating production plans. Oil prices have rebounded from $60 to $65 per barrel, supported

Geopolitical Developments Middle East Tensions Intensify Israel has expanded its military operations with a targeted airstrike in Doha, Qatar, aimed at Hamas leadership. The strike, which killed five Hamas members, has drawn strong criticism from both Qatar and the U.S., with concerns it could derail ongoing ceasefire negotiations. Qatar, a key mediator in Gaza peace

The U.S. economy showed stronger-than-expected growth in the second quarter, with GDP rising at a 3.0% annualized rate, outpacing the 2.4% forecast, after a contraction earlier this year. However, economists caution the number may be distorted by trade activity and inventory fluctuations. Inflation came in cooler than expected at 2.1%, leading to tempered expectations for

A fragile ceasefire has taken hold between Iran and Israel after 12 days of intense conflict, brokered by U.S. President Donald Trump. The U.S. joined the war by striking Iranian nuclear facilities with bunker-buster bombs, though a preliminary intelligence assessment suggests the attacks only temporarily set back Iran’s nuclear program by one to two months.

Russia’s oil and gas revenue dropped 35% year over year in May to 512.7 billion roubles ($6.55 billion), as lower global oil prices and sanctions continued to pressure the Kremlin’s finances. Revenue also declined 53% from April, prompting the finance ministry to cut its June forecast and raise the projected 2025 budget deficit to 1.7%

Goldman Sachs sees modest upside risk to its WTI crude price forecast for 2025 and 2026, citing recent U.S.-China trade de-escalation as a key driver. The bank estimates a $3–$4 per barrel upside to its base WTI forecast of $56/bbl in 2025 and $52/bbl in 2026. While reduced recession risk supports prices, Goldman still expects

OPEC+ shocked markets by announcing a 411,000-bpd output increase starting in May, tripling the pace of planned hikes despite plummeting oil prices and fears of a global economic slowdown. The group claimed the decision was based on a “positive market outlook,” though the timing coincided with a deepening selloff triggered by U.S. tariffs and China’s