Yesterday crude, distillate, and gas took a wild ride to the downside. Today is going the other way, at the time of this writing crude is up over $2.00 per barrel, and both distillate and gas are up over $.06 cents. Could it be that traders are just taking advantage of some low prices going into the weekend?
Fundamentals are mostly bearish although some analysts think the sell off yesterday could have markets in an oversold situation. Concerns of growing supply by producers outside of OPEC nations and declining demand have energies on edge. There has also been continuing news of weak demand coming out of Asia, including a slowdown in Chinese refinery throughput due to lower fuel oil demand.
On the side of the bulls is the voluntary production cuts by OPEC members, Saudi Arabia, and Russia of 1.3 million barrels per day which keeps a cap on current prices from dropping much lower. The next OPEC+ ministerial meeting will be held on November 26th to discuss market outlook. Any decisions from that group can certainly have repercussions to market sentiment. The current tension in the Middle East is ever present in the news, and any flare up can change market movements quickly.
If you are interested in current pricing or are looking at locking in some gallons for the future, please contact your Energy Account Manager.
We have had some extremely mild temps in our area over the last several days, which have limited our needs for running the furnace, however, the 8-14 Day Temperature Outlook is calling for a turn to below-average temps to settle over much of the U.S. (see chart below). We are in good shape with current LP supplies, but what will the next few months bring. It is unknown at this point how cold will it get, how long will it last, and could that be a strain on supplies, which of course is going to effect prices.
Propane exports which have climbed to a record 2.1M bbls/d on a week basis and to nearly 1.85M bbls/d on a four-week basis this year would contribute to a tightening of supplies, change the supply/demand dynamic, and possibly boost prices as we move through colder temps. We are still contracting for the current term, contracts would expire June 30th, 2024 which would cover your needs for the season. If you are interested in booking some gallons for reassurance that you know what your price point is, please reach out to your Energy Account Manager
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