Energy Market Update – November 27, 2024

Yesterday, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu announced that he was prepared to implement a ceasefire agreement with Lebanon but would respond decisively to any violations by Hezbollah, emphasizing that Israel would maintain “complete military freedom of action.” In a televised address, Netanyahu stated that he would present the ceasefire deal to his full cabinet later in the evening, which was later approved 10-1.

OPEC+ sources, including members of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and Russia, have indicated that the group is considering delaying its planned oil output increase for January. Initially, OPEC+ had intended to gradually ease production cuts through 2024 and 2025. However, weaker global demand and rising production outside the group have raised concerns about the viability of this plan. A final decision will be made at the group’s meeting on Sunday, December 1.

Fatih Birol, the head of the International Energy Agency (IEA), stated at a conference in Norway on Tuesday that the supply of oil and gas will be ample, with oil markets expected to remain “comfortable” this year and next, barring any significant geopolitical escalation. The IEA also projected on November 14 that global oil supply would exceed demand in 2025, even if OPEC+ continues its production cuts, due to increased output from the U.S. and other non-OPEC producers outpacing weak demand. This surplus in supply poses a challenge for OPEC+, which includes the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies like Russia, as it plans to gradually increase production. “There will be plenty of oil and gas,” Birol added.

This week’s DOE report is listed below. Please contact your Energy Account Manager with any needs you may have.

Propane

The DOE report showed a draw of 1 million bbls. This was under the expected 1.2 million bbls draw. Propane is trading at 46.2% of crude. This report is listed below.

All eyes will be on forecasts for propane going forward. You can see the next 6 to 14 days of outlook below. Any major shift of colder weather means more of a draw on propane.

Please contact your Energy Account Manager with any needs you may have.

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