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The U.S. economy showed stronger-than-expected growth in the second quarter, with GDP rising at a 3.0% annualized rate, outpacing the 2.4% forecast, after a contraction earlier this year. However, economists caution the number may be distorted by trade activity and inventory fluctuations. Inflation came in cooler than expected at 2.1%, leading to tempered expectations for

A fragile ceasefire has taken hold between Iran and Israel after 12 days of intense conflict, brokered by U.S. President Donald Trump. The U.S. joined the war by striking Iranian nuclear facilities with bunker-buster bombs, though a preliminary intelligence assessment suggests the attacks only temporarily set back Iran’s nuclear program by one to two months.

Russia’s oil and gas revenue dropped 35% year over year in May to 512.7 billion roubles ($6.55 billion), as lower global oil prices and sanctions continued to pressure the Kremlin’s finances. Revenue also declined 53% from April, prompting the finance ministry to cut its June forecast and raise the projected 2025 budget deficit to 1.7%

Goldman Sachs sees modest upside risk to its WTI crude price forecast for 2025 and 2026, citing recent U.S.-China trade de-escalation as a key driver. The bank estimates a $3–$4 per barrel upside to its base WTI forecast of $56/bbl in 2025 and $52/bbl in 2026. While reduced recession risk supports prices, Goldman still expects

OPEC+ shocked markets by announcing a 411,000-bpd output increase starting in May, tripling the pace of planned hikes despite plummeting oil prices and fears of a global economic slowdown. The group claimed the decision was based on a “positive market outlook,” though the timing coincided with a deepening selloff triggered by U.S. tariffs and China’s